Researches

Dynamic CGE model of Mongolian economy: Risk analyses on the IMF’s EFF program in Mongolia

Authors: Ragachaasuren Galindev, Tsolmon Baatarzorig, Oyunzul Tserendorj, Nyambaatar Batbayar, Unurjargal Davaa

Source: Economic Research Institute

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, Social Accounting Matrix, IMF's EFF Program, Risk analysis

Date: 2019-07-04

This study was conducted by Economic Research Institute (ERI) and Gerege Partners LLC in the context of an Institutional Support Project, with financial and scientific support from the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).

This study assesses the impacts of three possible risks on the Mongolian economy from 2018 to 2025 using a dynamic CGE model.

Within the scope of the “Institutional Support Project,” the research team developed the PEP-1-t standard CGE model. Using this model, we constructed a long-term baseline projection of the Mongolian economy between 2018 and 2025, which is reflected a projections of IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. The IMF projections used in the model’s assumptions are from the fourth review under the EFF arrangement to provide a reliable benchmark case given the collaboration between the IMF and the Mongolian government. The baseline study assumes that the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) underground mine development is completed as planned and that the prices of coal and copper are expected to follow the forecast from World Bank. 

 

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