||Economic Research Institute|
In this study we have estimated the Chinggis Bond’s impact on the Mongolian Economy via indirect and direct impact under two scenarios using CGE modeling.
In the first scenario, we have considered current allocation of Chinggis Bond. As a result, the total impact of the Chinggis Bond on the Mongolian economy is estimated approximately MNT 36 trillion (US$26 billion) between 2013 and 2030. In the short-term, there is a significant impact on construction sector while in the longer - term, it is observed that the transport, electricity and mining sectors have been notably benefited. It is found that the railway construction has the maximum multiplier for the economy.
In the second scenario, we studied the case that allocation of Chinggis Bond has been invested in only railway construction. In the long term impact is twice the size of the previous scenario due to a higher indirect benefit associated with reduced transport costs and it is noticed that the Mongolian economy could be more diversified.